The City of Perth dates from 1829 when the Swan River Colony was established. The City of Perth developed slowly from a colonial settlement to a village, then more rapidly from town to major city, especially after the Second World War. During this time, the City of Perth has become the dominant political, commercial, cultural and transport hub for the Perth Metropolis.
The City of Perth had its origins as a relatively diverse urban area, with a mixture of residential, commercial and industrial areas. The City declined in population in a similar fashion to other Australian central city local government areas in the middle part of the 20th Century as industry and commerce became more profitable land uses resulting in residents moving to areas outside the central city. This pattern has reversed in the last decade with significant new development, especially in the CBD area and in the redeveloped industrial areas of East Perth.
The extent of redevelopment proposed over the next twenty years will see the City's population increase significantly. This is expected to occur through large numbers of new dwellings being constructed, although the average numbers of persons occupying each dwelling will be far lower than in earlier decades. The large growth in population is a result of the attraction of inner city living for tertiary education, employment opportunities and entertainment, which results in much of the population migrating to the City being young adults in their late teens and early twenties. The City of Perth also attracts very large numbers of overseas migrants. These migrants are primarily made up of students studying at the University of Western Australia, as well as other educational institutions, such as Central TAFE.
The City also attracts migrants from middle and outer suburbs of Perth, country areas and interstate (most notably Sydney). Many of these migrants are young people studying or moving to the central city for lifestyle and/or employment reasons. By contrast, the City only loses small numbers of people in net terms to neighbouring inner suburbs such as the Town of Vincent. Many of these people may move further away from the CBD area to find affordable rental dwellings, trading accessibility for space or to find appropriate housing when the time comes for child-rearing.
The major drivers of population change in the City of Perth over the forecast period will be:
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the large number of new dwellings that are expected to be constructed (an average of just over 620 dwellings per annum between 2006 and 2031)
- Significant government investment and development within two precinct areas (Gateway Riverside Project and Northbridge Link)
- Substantial gain of young adults (aged 18-24) through migration
East Perth - Central is expected to have the largest amount of development with the construction of around 5,700 dwellings between 2006 and 2031. Perth (small area) is also expected to have large amounts of development with almost 5,200 additional dwellings forecast. Lower levels of development are expected in West Perth, Northbridge and East Perth - Claisebrook, while minimal dwelling change is forecast for Crawley.
The built form that is expected with these developments is likely to shape the population. The majority of new dwellings that are expected to be built over the 2006-2031 period are apartments. The apartment market has been dominated by young singles, couples and students (therefore group households, built form permitting). Media-driven myths about ‘empty nester’ demand are generally not supported by data analysis.
There are a number of key markets that are being targeted by developers. 1-bedroom apartments are mainly aimed at the student market and owned by investors. These sorts of developments are more likely to have younger university-aged populations. 2 and 3 bedroom apartments are aimed at young urban professionals with some investor elements, a part of which is emerging empty nesters and empty nesters providing accommodation for their children while at university. These developments are more focussed on comparatively high double-income households. This market is not easily identified, although corporate apartments may form a significant share of this market.
Another key way of differentiating the owner-occupier market from the investor market is the price point. One bedroom apartments are predominantly purchased by investors, while apartment complexes with 2 and 3 bedrooms are more likely to have a greater share of owner-occupiers. As a result of these different tenure relations, it is common to have a wide variety of vacancy rates across the City of Perth. Areas with a large supply of dwellings are more likely to have a high vacancy rate due to the considerable stock being introduced into the market. This is heightened in areas, where the majority of residents are renters and further exaggerated where there are many corporate apartments, temporary stay accommodation and non-permanent residences (serviced apartments). In these instances, a large share of the people residing in the units is temporary or visitor population and therefore not part of the Estimated Resident Population