Welcome to the City of Armadale Population Forecasts

The City of Armadale is located on the fringe of the Perth metropolitan area, about 20 kilometres south east of the Perth GPO. The City's land use is predominantly divided into three areas. There are the older established parts of the City along the Albany Highway-Railway corridor, based around the historical townships of Armadale and Kelmscott. Areas to the east are more undulating, with horticultural activities and rural residential development more prominent, as well as predominantly State Forest and water catchment areas in the most eastern parts of the City. The western areas of the City are sparsely populated and include large areas of wetlands and lakes, although there is substantial greenfield development planned for much of this area.

The City of Armadale's population grew substantially in recent decades, with the population growing at more than 2.5% per annum during the 1980s. However, population growth slowed during the early 1990s and over the last ten years, the total population has been relatively stagnant at just over 52,000. This has been a result of a number of factors. These include: greater residential development rates in the south-west corridor of Perth; more development in the City of Gosnells and; a maturing of the Armadale age structure leading to more young people leaving the family home and establishing households elsewhere.

However, it is likely that a number of these patterns will change in the next five years. The availability of large tracts of greenfield land in neighbouring areas to the City is decreasing rapidly, most notably Gosnells and Canning. Hence, the large number of net losses to neighbouring Local Government Areas such as Gosnells, Kalamunda and Rockingham experienced in the 2001-2006 period are likely to slow and, in some cases reverse, as more development opportunities in a broader range of housing product are available in the City of Armadale. The migration flows within the City of Armadale are also expected to reflect where the supply of residential land is located (destination) and where young people have grown up and left home (source).

With the progressive residential development of the City over many decades, the availability of land for development and the broad range of land uses, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. The small area of Armadale South is likely to attract a large number of persons in their late teens and early twenties, which is a reflection on the increasing amount of diverse housing and rental accommodation and being close to the services in central Armadale. Some of these areas, such as Roleystone - Karragullen, Kelmscott East, Mount Nasura-Mount Richon and Bedfordale are attractive to established and mature families looking to upgrade to their second and third home. Areas such as Camillo have had significant residential development in recent decades and are losing a large number of established families seeking new housing opportunities elsewhere, a process likely to affect Seville Grove in the longer term. New development areas in the North Forrestdale Area (Harrisdale and Haynes), Champion Lakes and Brookdale (Haynes, Hilbert) are likely to provide a broader range of housing choices from first home buyers through to 'upgrader' markets. This variety of function and role of the small areas in Armadale means that population outcomes differ significantly across the City.

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. Large new 'greenfield' opportunities have been identified in the growth areas of Piara Waters, Harrisdale, Forrestdale, Haynes and Hilbert. There is also significant further potential through smaller developments in Seville Grove, Champion Lakes and through rural residential development in the hills areas. Substantial interest in group dwelling development in the more urban parts of the city (Armadale North and South and Kelmscott East and West) is also likely to occur. There are likely to be other greenfield, rural residential and most notably infill development opportunities throughout the City, albeit at lower levels than the major growth areas identified above. Areas such as Camillo and Mount Nasura-Mount Richon are likely to have very low levels of residential development by comparison with recent decades due to scarcity of greenfield land and redevelopment sites for development.