Welcome to the Shire of Melton Population Forecasts

Significant residential in the Shire of Melton dates from the late 1960s and early 1970s when Melton township expanded from a relatively small rural service centre. The primary housing market role that the Shire played during this period was to provide affordable home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from the western suburbs of Melbourne. After a number of decades of incremental growth, the importance of the Shire of Melton within the western suburban housing market of Melbourne increased dramatically during the late 1990s. This is based predominantly on two factors. The first factor is the relative paucity of easily developable 'greenfield' land in the City of Brimbank to the east, where most residential opportunities were exploited by the early 1990s. The Cairnlea and Derrimut areas are notable exceptions within Brimbank that are being currently developed. The second factor is the significant demand for new housing from new young families and couples from within Brimbank and to a lesser degree areas to the east, such as East Keilor, Avondale Heights and parts of Maribyrnong City. This is based on the fact that many of these areas developed in the 1970s and 1980s, with strong demand from children who grew up in these areas who are now forming their own households. In addition, the Cities of Maribyrnong and Brimbank are major 'ports' for overseas migrants, many of whom would be expected to settle within Melton over the coming decades.

It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the Shire of Melton from the east, while the maturing of families within the Melton township area should provide additional demand, as children leave home to form households of their own within the Shire. By 2016, it is expected that Melton will provide a significant share of its own demand as this process extends to children who have grown up in Hillside, Caroline Springs, Burnside and Taylors Hill. The strong net flows from east to west into the Shire should be maintained over the 2006-2031 period.

The attraction of the area is a reflection on the significant amount and quality of residential housing opportunities and the affordability of the area, relative to areas closer to central Melbourne. Local demand is moderate as the base population of the Shire is relatively small and the age structure is oriented towards young and mature families and therefore has fewer households being produced as a result of older children (late teens, twenties and even thirties) leaving home to form new couples and families. The established areas of Melton township that were developed during the 1970s and 1980s are exceptions to this rule.

With the varied development and the unique geography of the Shire, different areas within the Shire of Melton have developed different roles within the housing market. Most areas were developed on the basis of housing for new families and couples, but at various price points. Over time the maturation of suburbs in the township (Melton, Melton South, Melton West) has provided new opportunities for younger and older couples, with construction of more denser forms of housing and aged care. This is likely to continue and strengthen in the future. There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the Shire which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the forecast period. Significant new 'greenfield' opportunities have been identified in Caroline Springs, Toolern, Taylors Hill, Burnside, Burnside Heights, Melton South, Brookfield, Eynesbury Township, Diggers Rest and Melton West. Other areas such as Melton and Hillside have some development areas, but increasingly dwelling additions will come from vacant lots, infill and more intense use of existing residential land. In the longer term, many areas in the Rural Balance section of the Shire are expected to accommodate a signficant amount of new development catering for a large percentage of Melbourne's outer westward expansion. Specific locations have not been nominated at this stage, however the State Government has identified large areas of the Shire as 'investigation areas' for future urban development.