Welcome to the Shire of Yarra Ranges Population Forecasts

Yarra Ranges Shire is located 30 and 110 kilometres east of the Melbourne CBD. The Shire encompasses a total land area of almost 2,500 square kilometres and is comprised of suburban areas, townships, rural land and native forests. The western section of the Shire includes the urban fringe of Melbourne, the central sections of the shire comprises the foothills of the Yarra Ranges and is home to numerous townships. The eastern half of Yarra Ranges contains mostly rural land and native forest while smaller townships are scattered throughout.

Settlement in Yarra Ranges Shire dates from the 1850s and 1860s as several small townships were established spurred by gold discoveries in the northern and eastern areas of the Shire. Early industries included forestry and grazing with the establishment of orchards and nurseries occurring in the 1880s and 1890s. Development of the area increased with the completion of the railway lines to Lilydale and Belgrave and continued steadily with significant development in the post-war years. The most rapid growth occurred during the 1970s and 1980s leading to the increased suburbanisation of the western areas of the Shire, significant growth occurred in permanent dwellings and the population of the area increased substantially. The primary housing market role that Yarra Ranges Shire has played in the post war period has been to provide home owning opportunities for two distinct markets - young family households and retirees, with the overwhelming demand from metropolitan Melbourne.

There is continued demand for residential development within the Shire, catering for both people moving from Melbourne and also new households being formed from within the existing population of Yarra Ranges Shire. However, the area is likely to continue to lose population, especially as the supply of detached dwellings is likely to limited over the next twenty years.

With the variety of residential areas, natural characteristics and period of development, different areas within Yarra Ranges Shire have developed different roles within the housing market. The bulk of the areas attract a combination of families and retirees (and sometimes elderly) including Lilydale, Chirnside Park, Healesville & Surrounds, Yarra Glen & Surrounds and Yarra Junction - Millgrove - Wesburn. Launching Place - Woori Yallock - Don Valley and Seville - Seville East attract a large number of young adults as they have had more recent development when compared to other areas of the Shire. Kilsyth and Gruyere - Coldstream - Yering have a higher proportion of retirees. The variety of function and role of the small areas in Yarra Ranges Shire means that population outcomes differ significantly across the Shire.

There are also significant differences in the supply of future residential land within the Shire which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next twenty-five years. Significant development opportunities have been identified in the centres of Lilydale, Chirnside Park and Mooroolbark. This will generally take the form of medium density development around designated activity centres. Belgrave - Selby, Belgrave Heights & Surrounds, Gruyere - Coldstream - Yering, Hilltop Towns, Kallista & Surrounds, Monbulk - Silvan and Warburton & Surrounds are expected to have limited residential development over the forecast period. Growth in households is also expected to come from the conversion of larger blocks to multi unit developments as well as the construction of new dwellings.