Welcome to the Penrith City Council Population Forecasts

Penrith City is located in Sydney’s outer western suburbs, between 35 and 55 kilometres west of the Sydney GPO. The City encompasses a land area of 407 square kilometres, of which around 80% is rural and rural-residential. The rural and rural residential land uses are concentrated in the south and north, with the residential population concentrated in a central band running east west along the major rail and road corridors between metropolitan Sydney and the Blue Mountains. In the post war era, and particularly in the last 40 years, the City has catered for a significant proportion of Sydney’s demand for new housing on the urban fringe. While development has slowed somewhat in recent years, an increase in residential development is expected as several large release areas have been identified for urban development over the next 10-20 years.

Penrith City has increased significantly in population since the Second World War. In 1950, the population of the City was 14,770 with most population focussed around Penrith and St Marys. By 1971, the City’s population had reached 58,000 and by 1981, 108,700. This enormous growth effectively ‘filled in’ the gaps between settlements along the main western railway. The primary housing market role that the City played in this period was to provide home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from areas to the east as well as migrants from overseas. This role is expected to continue to some extent with additional areas of the City being identified for future urban development over the next twenty years. This growth is to be focussed in release areas such Penrith Lakes, the St Marys Release Area (former ADI site), Glenmore Park, Caddens Release Area as well as in existing centres such as Penrith, St Marys and Kingswood.

Demand for residential development in the City’s growth areas will come both from new households forming in the established areas of Penrith City as well as areas to the east and overseas.

With the variety of residential areas, natural characteristics and period of development, different areas within Penrith City have developed different roles within the housing market. Many established areas such as St Clair, South Penrith and Regentville are experiencing significant net loss of persons in their 20s. These are the children of families that settled in these areas in the 1970s and 1980s and are now at the stage where they are looking to establish new households elsewhere. Many of these new households would be heading to growth suburbs such as the Caddens and St Marys Release Areas and Penrith Lakes. Major centres such as Penrith, Werrington, Kingswood and St Marys by contrast attract young adults who are seeking access to employment, education and transport. These areas also have a much larger stock of medium density and rental stock. The major growth areas of the City are expected to attract a range of markets, although still principally young families. This includes areas such as Glenmore Park (Stage 2), Caddens and St Marys Release Areas and Claremont Meadows (Stage 2). Penrith Lakes is expected to attract a slightly older family market with adults in their 30s and 40s, often with teenage children. This variety of function and role of the small areas in Penrith City means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. Large new 'greenfield' opportunities have been identified in the growth areas. These are predominantly located in Caddens and St Marys Release Areas, Claremont Meadows, Penrith Lakes, Glenmore Park, Kingswood and Werrington. Significant in-fill development opportunities in Penrith and St Marys are also expected to contribute significant numbers of new dwellings. By contrast, established suburbs such as Emu Heights, Erskine Park, Leonay, Llandilo, North St Marys, Werrington Downs, South Penrith and Regentville are expected to provide relatively low numbers of new dwellings over the forecast period.