Moira Shire is located along the Murray River in Victoria’s north, with the largest centres at Yarrawonga, Cobram and Numurkah. Other centres in the Shire include Nathalia, Strathmerton, Tungamah, Wunghnu, Katamatite and Bundalong. Due to its location along the Murray River, the Shire has a close relationship with areas across the border in New South Wales. The most notable linkages are between Cobram and Barooga, as well as Yarrawonga and Mulwala.
The Shire has a mixed economic base with highly productive rural areas, both irrigated and dryland in nature, significant value-adding especially for products from within the Shire, as well as a combination of service functions, particularly in the three largest centres. Dairying, beef cattle, wool and fruit production are the main rural industries. Manufacturing is concentrated in the dairy industry, with large manufacturing plants at Strathmerton and Cobram, as well as an Abbatoirs and Stock feed plant at Nathalia. A large number of people also work in manufacturng in neighbouring areas, such as Mulwala (Thales - ADI), Wangaratta and Shepparton. However, the majority of the population is employed in services, most notably retail trade, education and health. Tourism is also a notable employer in Moira Shire, especially in the Riverine areas around Yarrawonga and Cobram. Although the number of jobs in clubs and hotels in Barooga and Mulwala have fallen in recent years, this remains an important source of work for Moira Shire residents. The Shire is relatively self-contained in employment terms (about 80%) and as a consequence future changes to population will be mainly associated with employment growth or decrease.
The population of Moira Shire has grown substantially over the last thirty years. Since 2001, there is significant evidence to suggest that the population growth has increased dramatically, most notably in Yarrawonga where development rates are at unprecedented levels. The dominant drivers for population gain during these periods have been:
- in-migration of empty-nesters and retirees
- employment growth in services, especially tourism based industries, retail trade, health and education
- Consolidation of agricultural industries and growth in value-adding
- Attraction of families to the area, based on the amenity and beauty
The population gains tend to be based on external migration factors, such as from overseas. Yarrawonga tends to gain from areas on the other side of the Murray River and from Melbourne. As young people leave home, a number of them migrate to major centres such as Melbourne (notably in the west of the Shire), Shepparton, Wangaratta and Echuca, as well as places with strong job prospects like Queensland and Perth. It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the Shire from overseas and losses of young people to larger centres, albeit in lower numbers.
Overall employment factors will have a major bearing on population factors in the next fifteen to twenty years. Significant employment growth should emerge from services as a result of a need to support an increasingly ageing and aged population in the Shire. Yarrawonga-Mulwala is likely to benefit from its transition from a medium-sized town to a large town, with the potential for new services to be established in health, education, business services and government.
The population change expected over the next fifteen to twenty years will also be influenced by demand for housing in those areas. Yarrawonga and Cobram are advantaged by the natural beauty of their river location and the relative good access to services in the town. Numurkah should benefit from its proximity to a much larger labour market (Shepparton) and its continued role as an affordable rural-small town option for people in the Shepparton area. Areas in Moira Shire that are more rural in nature are likely to remain relatively stable in population, as minor residential development should compensate for potential decline due to the overall size of farms becoming larger. The catchment areas in New South Wales (Barooga and Mulwala) are likely to continue to grow strongly. This is based on the strengthening of the Cobram and Yarrawonga urban areas through growth and the potential for these areas to provide different options in the housing market, whether it is affordability or a more rural option.