Welcome to the Bega Valley Shire Population Forecasts

The Bega Valley Shire is a large rural local government area on the New South Wales Far South Coast, with major centres at Bega, Merimbula and Eden. Much of the coastal area of the Shire is strongly oriented towards residential development and tourism, particularly around Merimbula, Tura Beach, Tathra and Bermagui. The rural areas inland are highly productive with dairying and grazing the most notable agricultural industries. Inland areas are highly mountainous and dominated by National Park and State Forest.

The urban centres began as small agricultural service centres and as fishing ports. Tathra was first used as a port in the 1850s and wharves were constructed at Bermagui, Tathra and Merimbula to service the dairying and beef industries. The coastal centres have expanded rapidly in population during the post-war period, especially in the last 25 years. This has been a result of the growth in tourism based on increasing affluence, as well as increasing numbers of retirees and improvements in road infrastructure and greater mobility. The area has grown in population particularly as a result of the proximity to Victoria as well as Canberra.

The population of Bega Valley Shire increased notably since the 1980s. There was an increase of more than 6,500 persons in the ten years to 1991 to a population of 26,500. Since 1991, population growth has slowed, although a further 6,000 people have been added to the population by 2006.

The primary housing market role that the Shire has played in recent decades was to provide housing for retirees and young families from Victoria, Sydney and Canberra in a coastal or semi-rural environment. This role is expected to continue in the future, although the amount of development in Bega is expected to increase.

Although the majority of areas in Bega Valley Shire attract a combination of young and mature families and retirees, there are some differences between areas. Bega is expected to generally attract young and mature families. All other areas attract a combination of young families as well as retirees. Net migration to Tura Beach-Mirador, Bermagui-Wallaga Lake and to a lesser extent, Merimbula-Berrambool is concentrated in retiree age groups.

There are also significant differences in the supply of future residential land within the Shire which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. Although residential development opportunities have been identified across most areas of the Shire, the largest amount of new development is expected in Merimbula-Berrambool, Rural West and Bermagui-Wallaga Lake. Much of this reflects the traditional preference of new migrants to the Shire to settle in areas near the coast. By contrast, relatively smaller amounts of new dwelling gain are anticipated in Pambula & District and Tathra-Kalaru.